Resumption of Red Sea Maritime Traffic: Navigating Security Risks Post-Ceasefire
Maritime traffic in the Red Sea is anticipated to gradually resume following the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although security experts caution that certain vessels still face risks.
Maritime security firm Ambrey indicates that the revival of shipping operations depends on the stability of the ceasefire that began on January 19. The first phase of the ceasefire is set to last 42 days, with negotiations for a second phase expected by the fifth week.
Source: Khaled Abdullah
Ambrey’s latest threat assessment highlights that the threat to shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden remains conditional. Although the Houthi-aligned Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) has announced a halt in military actions against merchant vessels, this does not apply to vessels owned or flagged by Israel. The Houthis have stated they will resume operations if they perceive any aggression against them.
The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) has advised caution, suggesting that the maritime industry should be skeptical of the Houthi claims. They assert that risks remain high for vessels linked to Israel, the US, or the UK.
Since November 2023, the Houthis have conducted over 100 attacks on vessels, resulting in two ships being sunk, four seafarers killed, and an ongoing hostage situation involving 25 crew members from the car carrier Galaxy Leader. This Bahamas-flagged vessel, operated by the Japanese company NYK Line, is owned by a subsidiary of Ray Car Carriers, co-owned by Israeli businessman Abraham Ungar.
Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi stated that his forces are always ready for immediate action if Israel escalates tensions again.
The situation is complex, with various factors influencing maritime security. Any perceived violation of the ceasefire by Israel could lead to escalated conflict, while military actions by the US or UK against the Houthis could renew threats to their vessels.
Drewry, a research firm, noted that while the ceasefire is a positive development, it is unlikely that container lines will quickly return to the Suez Canal. They estimate that it may take months for carriers to resume normal operations, as they will need to be certain that the threat has been fully addressed.
For now, shipping companies are advised to conduct comprehensive risk assessments and implement necessary security measures before navigating the Red Sea.
