ILO Revises 2025 Employment Forecast: 53 Million Jobs Expected
The International Labour Organization (ILO) has updated its global employment forecast for 2025, now predicting the creation of 53 million jobs instead of the previously estimated 60 million. This adjustment results in a decrease in global employment growth from 1,7 % to 1,5 % for this year, equating to approximately seven million fewer jobs. This decline reflects a downgraded global economic outlook, with GDP growth expected to be 2,8 %, down from an earlier projection of 3,2 %.
The ILO’s latest employment estimates, presented in the new World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO) Update, are based on economic growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook.
Source: ILO
Additionally, the ILO estimates that nearly 84 million jobs across 71 countries are directly or indirectly linked to US consumer demand. These jobs and the incomes they generate are increasingly at risk due to heightened trade tensions. The Asia-Pacific region holds the majority of these jobs, totaling 56 million, while Canada and Mexico have the highest percentage of exposed jobs at 17,1 %.
“We know that the global economy is growing at a slower pace than we had anticipated. Our report indicates that if geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions persist, and if we do not address fundamental issues reshaping the world of work, there will likely be negative ripple effects on labor markets worldwide,” stated ILO Director-General Gilbert F. Houngbo.
The report also highlights concerning trends in income distribution. The labor income share, which represents the portion of GDP allocated to workers, has decreased globally from 53,0 % in 2014 to 52,4 % in 2024, with Africa and the Americas experiencing the most significant declines. If this share had remained stable, global labor income would have been $1 trillion higher in 2024, or $290 more per worker in terms of constant purchasing power. This decline in the share of global income going to workers exacerbates inequality and underscores a disconnect between economic growth and worker compensation.
Read also: Anticipated Surprises in the Shipping Industry for the First Quarter of 2025
Furthermore, the report indicates a shift towards high-skilled jobs, with women leading this trend. From 2013 to 2023, the share of women in high-skilled occupations increased from 21,2 % to 23,2 %, while the proportion of men in such roles was around 18% in 2023. However, occupational segregation remains, with women underrepresented in sectors like construction and overrepresented in clerical and caregiving positions.
Despite rising educational attainment globally, the labor market continues to face significant educational mismatches. As of 2022, only 47,7 % of workers had qualifications that matched their job requirements. The share of under-educated workers decreased from 37,9 % to 33,4 % over the past decade, while the share of over-educated workers rose from 15,5 % to 18,9 %.
The report also discusses the impact of new technologies on the workforce, finding that nearly one in four workers may see their jobs transformed by generative AI. A larger proportion of medium-skilled jobs are somewhat exposed, but a higher percentage of high-skilled jobs face significant exposure, with existing tasks potentially being automated by AI.
“The findings of this report on the employment landscape are sobering, but they can also serve as a roadmap for creating decent jobs. We can make a difference by strengthening social protection, investing in skills development, promoting social dialogue, and building inclusive labor markets to ensure that technological change benefits everyone. We must act with urgency, ambition, and solidarity,” explained the Director-General.
