BP Gas Demand Forecast to 2050: Key Insights

According to BP’s Energy Outlook 2025, gas demand in Europe has limited growth prospects through 2050. This year’s report introduces two scenarios: the “Current Trajectory,” based on existing climate and energy policies, and the “Below 2°C” scenario, which envisions significant reductions in carbon emissions.

In both scenarios, oil and gas remain significant through 2050. In the Current Trajectory scenario, global gas demand rises from approximately 4 trillion m³ in 2023 to 4.7 trillion m³ by 2035, with China emerging as the primary growth driver post-2035. In the Below 2°C scenario, gas demand peaks by the end of the decade at just over 4 trillion m³ and declines steadily thereafter.

Demand growth in emerging economies, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, driven by industrial sectors like chemicals and light industries, supports gas consumption. However, the pace of the energy transition is the dominant factor. In developed markets, except the US in the Current Trajectory, gas demand remains stable or declines due to increasing electrification.

LNG Demand

Asia is set to drive global LNG demand. In the Current Trajectory, LNG demand grows by over 60 % by 2035 from 2023 levels and continues to rise more slowly until 2050. In the Below 2°C scenario, LNG demand peaks by the decade’s end and falls to about 25 % below 2023 levels by 2050. Russian LNG exports, constrained early in the outlook, rise from 45 billion m³ in 2023 to 80 billion m³ by 2050 in the Current Trajectory.

Europe and LNG

As Russian gas supplies to the EU decline (from 140 billion m³ in 2021 to 30 billion m³ in 2024 and 15 billion m³ by 2035), Europe will rely more on LNG imports and non-Russian pipeline gas. In the Current Trajectory, LNG accounts for 40 % of European demand by 2035, slightly above 2024 levels but more than double pre-2022 levels. In the Below 2°C scenario, LNG imports in 2035 fall below 2024 levels due to faster demand reduction.

Energy Efficiency

Over the past five years, energy efficiency gains have slowed to 1,5 % per year, down from 1,9 % in the prior decade. This slowdown, attributed to energy-intensive industries, extreme weather impacts, and reduced investment in efficiency projects, has supported continued fossil fuel demand despite growth in renewables.