Growth of Cargo Volume on Russia’s Northern Sea Route Amid Sanctions and Ambitious Targets
Cargo volume on Russia’s primary Arctic shipping route is on the rise, although it still falls short of the ambitious targets set by President Putin earlier in the decade. Western sanctions have hindered several oil and gas projects, adversely affecting overall cargo volume.
In 2024, the total tonnage transported via the Northern Sea Route increased to 38 million tonnes, up from 35 million tonnes in 2023. Over the past ten years, cargo volume has surged tenfold, from just 3,7 million tonnes in 2014, but has largely stabilized above 30 million tonnes since 2019.
Putin and government officials have consistently announced ambitious goals, aiming for 80 million tonnes by 2024, 190 million tonnes by 2030, and as much as 270 million tonnes by 2035. The development of oil and gas resources in Russia’s North is closely linked to Arctic shipping, as outlined in a 2035 development plan for the Northern Sea Route approved two years ago.
Source: gCaptain
The Arctic LNG 2 mega project is only partially completed, and its shipping fleet is significantly impacted by US sanctions, resulting in liquefied gas volumes remaining steady at around 20 million tonnes, primarily from the Yamal LNG project.
Originally, Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project was set to begin production in 2024, potentially contributing up to 30 million tonnes to the Northern Sea Route in its first year. However, project delays and the effects of sanctions, particularly on ice-capable oil tankers, have pushed this back by two years. The projected production figures of up to 100 million tonnes by 2033 now appear unrealistic.
In 2025, cargo volume on the Northern Sea Route is expected to continue its steady growth, adding a few million tonnes as more volume from Arctic LNG 2 enters the market through the emerging LNG shadow fleet, although no buyers were identified in the latter half of 2024.
Arctic transit cargo—shipments between Europe and Asia—also reached record levels in 2024, hitting 3 million tonnes for the first time. Overall, the route recorded nearly 100 transits, primarily between Russia and China, indicating a growing collaboration in both commercial and defense sectors in the Arctic between the two nations.
