Windward Analysis: Decrease in Russian Oil Voyages and Rising Maritime Challenges in Q3 2024
A recent analysis by Windward reveals a 20 % decrease in the volume of direct oil voyages from Russia in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter. Q3 2024 recorded the lowest monthly average of direct voyages from Russia to China since March 2023, showing a 12 % decline from Q2 2024 averages. This marks the first total volume decrease since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war and is likely linked to a slight reduction in port calls in Russia during this quarter.
Windward has also identified new ship-to-ship (STS) transfer hubs for vessels that have visited Russian ports. Notably, for the first time since April 2022, there were seven commodity STS meetings in the Aegean Sea, near the Greek islands of Lesbos and Chios. However, during Q3 2024, the existing hub near Kalamata, southern Greece, saw a 93 % decrease compared to the monthly average from the previous year, likely due to the Greek Navy’s efforts to combat the STS operations off its coast.
In contrast, Q3 2024 experienced a 340 % increase in STS engagements in the Black Sea compared to Q2 2024. Although this appears to be a significant rise, the number may be influenced by GPS jamming in the region, and it remains substantially lower than the same period last year, reflecting a 75 % decrease.
For the first time, Windward reported GNSS manipulation by LNG carriers in Q3 2024. September 2024 saw the highest number of port calls at Russian LNG facilities in the past year, which was 20 % higher than the monthly average since October 2022. This increase corresponds with a rise in LNG carrier voyages through the Barents Sea, potentially indicating activity from the newly opened LNG2 facility in Utrenniy.
Additionally, grain smuggling instances rose in Q3 2024. Following the collapse of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal in July 2023, the monthly average of smuggling incidents surged by 145 %. Preliminary data for Q3 2024 suggests that September will mark the highest monthly average of smuggling instances since then.
The figures for gray and dark fleets remained relatively stable in Q3 2024, with an increase of 930 gray fleet vessels and 1,500 dark fleet vessels. The top three flags for both fleets are Panama, Liberia, and Russia, while the primary destinations for the dark fleet include Russia, the US, Turkey, and China.
Moreover, during the first quarter of 2024, 36 maritime companies were added to sanction lists, representing a 140 % increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
